The Financial Times reported no indication that Iran had decided to acquire nuclear weapons. Two senior Iranian officials also told the newspaper that leaving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty was not an immediate priority.

The public push for an arsenal has gained momentum following the war and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. His son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not publicly clarified whether he will maintain his father’s opposition to nuclear weapons.

A religious ruling at the centre of the debate

Ali Khamenei had issued a fatwa, or religious ruling, against nuclear weapons. Openly supporting a bomb therefore meant challenging the position of Iran’s highest religious and political authority.

In September, Hassan Ghashghavi, spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, raised the possibility of a different ruling. He said the new supreme leader could change the religious position on nuclear weapons and that no one could stop him.

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Davoud Modarresian, a political commentator close to ultraconservative circles, made the case for an arsenal in October. He wrote that acquiring nuclear weapons was a necessity for Iran rather than an ambition.

Hardliners point to North Korea

Supporters of nuclear weapons argue that an arsenal would deter future attacks. Some point to North Korea as an example of how nuclear arms can discourage foreign intervention.

Some hardliners also advocate leaving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, arguing that it no longer serves Iran’s interests. One of the senior Iranian officials interviewed by the Financial Times said policy on the treaty remained unchanged but could change later.

The push does not command agreement across Iran’s political establishment. Hossein Marashi, a reformist figure, said protecting Iran and the Islamic Republic mattered more than uranium enrichment or preserving nuclear achievements.

Nuclear infrastructure could remain a bargaining tool

Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at the International Crisis Group, said the war had strengthened advocates of nuclear weapons. He said they viewed an arsenal as the ultimate deterrent for a country facing an existential attack.

Vaez also described another possible course for Tehran: retaining its nuclear infrastructure rather than openly pursuing a bomb. Iran could use that infrastructure as leverage in negotiations to seek economic and security concessions, he said.