The death toll from Venezuela’s consecutive June earthquakes could be substantially higher than the government’s count of 6,509. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) puts its estimate at 53,000, while a separate New York Times analysis has also raised doubts about the official figure.

The gap leaves considerable uncertainty over how many people died. The USGS calculates an approximately 81% probability that the toll exceeded 10,000, alongside its estimate of 53,000.

Two sharply different death tolls

The government’s figure is a reported count, while the USGS number comes from a model used to estimate earthquake deaths. The agency assigns a 50% probability that the actual toll is above 53,000 and a 50% probability that it is below that level.

Seismologist David Wald said the USGS has used earthquake intensity, historical data and population distribution for years to estimate deaths after an earthquake. Those estimates tend to be more accurate for events with large numbers of deaths, he said.

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A census gap complicates the estimate

One obstacle to establishing a reliable toll in Venezuela is the lack of an updated official census. Population distribution is one of the inputs the USGS uses, alongside the intensity of the shaking and historical data.

To address that gap, the agency uses LandScan, a population model developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. It projects figures from the latest census using United Nations data and dozens of other variables.

Those variables include land use, roads and proximity to urban areas. Together, they help estimate where people were when the earthquakes struck, supplying population information for the USGS calculation.

Building analysis raises further doubts

The New York Times examined satellite images, visual records and building types in a separate analysis that also questioned the official death toll. Its examination of residential buildings offered another basis for doubts about the government’s count, distinct from the USGS population-based estimate.

The Venezuelan government did not respond to requests for comment. Its reported total remains far below the USGS estimate, whose equal probabilities of a higher or lower toll reflect the uncertainty surrounding the number of deaths.