Brazil’s presidential runoff remains closely contested with 10 days until the October 25 election. Recent surveys from polling firms Quaest and Palver put President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro within their reported margins of error.

Quaest puts Bolsonaro two points ahead

Quaest’s latest survey gave Flávio Bolsonaro 46% of voting intentions, compared with 44% for Lula. The poll reported a margin of error of two percentage points and described the result as a technical tie.

Just 1% of respondents were undecided, while 9% said they would cast a blank or invalid ballot. Both candidates also faced high rejection: 54% said they would never vote for Bolsonaro, and 53% said the same about Lula.

Earlier Quaest surveys testing a possible runoff had put Bolsonaro at 44% and Lula at 42%. The latest figures therefore leave the numerical gap between the candidates at two percentage points.

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Palver finds a one-point gap

A separate Palver survey conducted October 10–13 put Bolsonaro at 50% and Lula at 49%. It also described the contest as a technical tie, citing a maximum margin of error of 2.3 percentage points.

Palver interviewed 5,000 people and reported an effective sample size of 1,783. It used a non-probability online sample, recruiting participants through advertisements on social media. The results were then calibrated against voting in the first round.

The survey was registered with Brazil’s electoral authority, the Superior Electoral Court, under number BR-08028/2026. Its fieldwork ended two days before the scheduled release of the next Datafolha poll.

Datafolha prepares a fresh reading

Polling institute Datafolha is scheduled to release a new survey on October 15. Its previous runoff poll, published October 8, put Bolsonaro at 49% and Lula at 45% of total voting intentions. Among valid votes, the figures were 52% and 48%, respectively.

The new survey calls for 2,520 in-person interviews between October 13 and 15, covering municipalities across Brazil’s five regions. Its planned maximum margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level.

The new Datafolha results are still pending. The survey is registered with the electoral authority under number BR-00466/2026.