Three polls released on October 13, 2026, gave different estimates of Brazil’s presidential runoff between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. PoderData/Aya and BTG/Nexus reported results within their margins of error. Gerp showed a larger advantage for Bolsonaro ahead of the October 25 vote.

PoderData shows a narrowing gap

PoderData/Aya put Bolsonaro, the PL party candidate, at 51% of valid votes and Lula, of the PT party, at 49%. The survey described the candidates as tied within its margin of error of 1.8 percentage points.

Lula gained two percentage points from the previous round, published on October 8, when he stood at 47%. Bolsonaro fell by the same amount from 53%, reducing the gap from six points to two.

The survey involved 3,000 telephone interviews in 686 municipalities across Brazil’s 27 federal units, according to a Brazilian news outlet. It reported a 95% confidence level. The fieldwork dates were reported differently: October 10–12 in one account and October 11–13 in another.

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PoderData conducted the survey with its own funding, with Aya Bancah as its partner for publishing the results. The poll was registered with Brazil’s electoral authority, the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, under number BR-01209/2026.

BTG/Nexus also reports a close race

The BTG/Nexus survey put Bolsonaro at 52% of valid votes and Lula at 48%. Its margin of error was two percentage points, and the result was described as a technical tie.

Across all voting intentions, Bolsonaro had 48% and Lula 45%. Another 5% intended to cast blank or invalid ballots, while 2% were undecided.

Commissioned by BTG Pactual and conducted by Nexus, the poll interviewed 2,002 voters by telephone between October 10 and 12. It reported a 95% confidence level and was registered under number BR-07997/2026.

Gerp gives Bolsonaro a larger advantage

Gerp put Bolsonaro at 55% of valid votes and Lula at 45%, a 10-point difference. Its valid-vote calculation excludes respondents choosing neither candidate, blank or invalid ballots, or no candidate.

The institute conducted 2,400 telephone interviews across all Brazilian federal units on October 8, 9 and 12. It reported a two-point margin of error and a 95.55% confidence level. Gerp funded the survey itself and registered it under number BR-07877/2026.