JPMorgan Asset Management has put Bitcoin into its long-term forecast table for the first time, projecting a 10% annual compounded return over the next 10 to 15 years. The move matters because the bank still does not treat the cryptocurrency as a standard portfolio building block.

The 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the firm’s annual outlook for institutional investors, were released on October 19, 2026. In the same set of projections, JPMorgan put U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5%, gold at 5.5% and U.S. real estate investment trusts at 8.2%.

Bitcoin enters JPMorgan’s long-term assumptions table

The forecast is the first time Bitcoin has appeared in JPMorgan Asset Management’s long-term capital market assumptions. The report looks 10 to 15 years ahead and is used to frame return expectations across asset classes.

Bitcoin’s appearance does not mean JPMorgan is telling clients to buy it. The bank is giving the asset a return assumption, not a portfolio allocation target.

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That distinction is central to the report. JPMorgan says Bitcoin belongs in a separate analytical framework, not in its main multi-asset portfolios or covariance matrices, which are used to model how assets move together.

Why the bank still keeps it out of core portfolios

JPMorgan’s caution rests on two figures in the report: Bitcoin’s estimated 55% annualized volatility and its unstable correlations with other assets. For U.S. large-cap stocks, the volatility assumption is about 18%.

The bank’s analysts say those swings create a gap between simple average returns and compound returns. In the report, Bitcoin’s arithmetic annual return is estimated at 20.9%, but the compound figure falls to 10% once volatility is taken into account.

JPMorgan also projected a 7.0% return for a balanced 60/40 portfolio, while global aggregate bonds were put at 5.3%, their highest level in two decades. That backdrop makes the bank’s decision to keep Bitcoin outside standard allocations more notable, even as it places the asset inside its long-term forecast framework.

What the numbers suggest for investors

The report presents Bitcoin as an asset with high return potential and equally high uncertainty. JPMorgan said the combination of volatility and uneven correlations makes it difficult to fold into conventional portfolio construction.

Even so, the inclusion marks a shift in how a major Wall Street firm is treating the asset. Bitcoin is now visible in JPMorgan’s institutional assumptions, even if it is still excluded from the firm’s main model portfolios.

For investors, the practical message is narrow but clear: JPMorgan is forecasting, not recommending. The bank is assigning Bitcoin a place in its long-range math, while stopping short of calling it a core portfolio holding.