Turkey’s consumer prices rose 29.77% in October from a year earlier, a slight increase from September’s 29.73%, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute, TÜİK. The reading matters not just as a headline number: it also sets the November ceiling for rent increases on homes and workplaces at 31.23%.

Food kept inflation moving in October

TÜİK said prices rose 2.58% in October from the previous month. Food and non-alcoholic beverages were the biggest driver of that monthly increase, rising 3.50% and adding 0.84 percentage points to overall inflation.

Transport prices rose 2.02% and added 0.36 points, while housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 2.84% and contributed 0.34 points. That mix shows the pressure is not confined to one corner of the economy. In the 174 spending categories tracked by TÜİK, prices rose in 134, fell in 29 and were unchanged in 11.

The biggest monthly jump was in green leafy or stem vegetables, where prices surged 71.79%. The sharpest fall was in international air passenger transport, which dropped 20.90%.

Why the annual rate still looks sticky

On a year-on-year basis, housing posted the largest increase among the three main spending groups, up 40.24%. Transport rose 36.39% and food and non-alcoholic beverages were up 27.73%. But food made the largest contribution to annual inflation overall, adding 6.81 percentage points, ahead of transport at 6.10 points and housing at 4.71 points.

Turkey’s broader inflation measures also remained elevated. A core index that strips out unprocessed food, energy, alcohol, tobacco and gold rose 2% on the month and 28.46% on the year. Another measure excluding energy, food, alcohol, tobacco and gold showed annual inflation of 28.28%. Those figures suggest the price pressure remains widespread, not just in a few volatile items.

What economists are watching next

The October reading leaves inflation close to 30% as the year enters its final two months. Economists quoted by TGRT Haber said that matters because November and December will decide whether the annual rate finishes below or above that threshold.

Economist Sefer Şener said October inflation came in above Anadolu Agency’s 2.20% estimate and the Central Bank’s 2.11% forecast. He said year-end inflation could land between 29% and 30.5%, depending on the next two monthly readings. Financial analyst İslam Memiş said he had expected October inflation of 2.70% to 2.75% and warned that the year-end path still depends on oil prices and wider geopolitical tension.

For households, the immediate effect is already clearer: the 12-month average inflation rate of 31.23% now sets the maximum rent increase for November. For everyone else, the message is that Turkey’s inflation remains close to 30%.