US media projected Democrats Roy Cooper and Chris Pappas to win Senate races in North Carolina and New Hampshire on November 3. Cooper’s projected victory would move a Republican-held seat to the Democrats; Pappas is projected to replace a retiring Democrat, so the two wins would change the Senate map in different ways.

North Carolina: a projected gain for Democrats

Cooper, 69, is a former two-term North Carolina governor. He was projected to defeat Republican Michael Whatley, whom President Donald Trump strongly supported and had personally selected, according to reports. Cooper focused his campaign on the cost of living.

The seat is held by Republicans and was described as a key contest. Cooper is projected to succeed Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who announced his retirement after an open clash with Trump over Medicaid cuts in a major tax and public-spending law. The projection points to a change in which party holds North Carolina’s seat, but it does not establish the Senate’s final balance.

New Hampshire: a successor to a retiring Democrat

In New Hampshire, US media projected Democrat Chris Pappas to defeat Republican John Sununu. Pappas would succeed Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, who is retiring after 18 years. Unlike North Carolina, this is not a projected party-to-party change in the seat: Shaheen is a Democrat, as is Pappas.

The race also carries a distinction noted by CNN, which projected Pappas’s win: he would be the first openly gay man elected to the Senate. Pappas is a moderate Democrat who is publicly gay. During the campaign, he repeatedly blamed Trump and his party for the war in Iran and rising energy prices.

What the projections say about the Senate

Before the elections, Republicans held 53 Senate seats and the opposition held 47. New Hampshire had long been considered competitive, and Republicans hoped to win there to help retain control of the chamber. If the projection holds, that effort will not produce a Republican win in the state, while Cooper’s projected win would take a seat previously held by Republicans.

The two projections are significant for different reasons: North Carolina represents a potential gain for Democrats, while New Hampshire is a projected Democratic hold. The reported outcomes do not give a final post-election seat count, so they do not by themselves show which party will control the Senate.