Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is narrowly ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a Vox Brasil poll released two days before Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, although the result is classified as a statistical tie. Flávio Bolsonaro received 41.2% of first-round voting intentions, compared with 40.4% for Lula, a difference of 0.8 percentage points.

The poll’s margin of error is 2.15 percentage points in either direction, meaning the candidates are within the survey’s statistical range. The poll was conducted among 2,100 voters from September 29 to October 1, with a 95% confidence level, and was registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under number BR-00148/2026.

Runoff simulation gives Bolsonaro a narrow edge

In a simulated second-round contest between the two leading candidates, Flávio Bolsonaro received 48.2% and Lula 45.2%. In that scenario, 2.5% of respondents said they would cast a blank or invalid ballot or vote for neither candidate, while 4.1% did not know or declined to answer.

The survey placed Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado at 3.3% in the first round, followed by Renan Santos at 2.2%, Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema at 1.3% and writer Augusto Cury at 1.2%. Edmilson Costa received 0.2%. Several other listed candidates recorded no support in the poll. Another 3.2% said they would vote blank, invalidate their ballot or choose none of the candidates, while 7% were undecided or did not respond.

Campaign enters its final days

Compared with Vox Brasil’s previous poll, released on September 29, Flávio Bolsonaro’s support rose from 37.8% to 41.2%, while Lula’s fell from 41.1% to 40.4%. The figures describe the movement between the two surveys but do not by themselves determine the election result.

Lula held a campaign walk in Rio de Janeiro on October 2, starting at Candelária and scheduled to end at Cinelândia. The event took place without Eduardo Paes, the PT-backed candidate for governor, and was attended by Senate candidate Benedita da Silva, Pedro Paulo, First Lady Janja Lula da Silva, Rio Mayor Eduardo Cavaliere and Niterói Mayor Rodrigo Neves.

In his speech, Lula urged voters over 70 to go to the polls and said he believed the election could be decided in the first round. He also appealed for votes for Paes, Benedita da Silva and Pedro Paulo.

Parties prepare for a possible second round

Edinho Silva, president of the Workers’ Party, said the party expected a possible second-round contest between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. He argued that Lula had a stronger network of state-level alliances, while acknowledging that a runoff would require talks with voters and political forces outside the progressive camp.

Silva said the party was open to incorporating proposals from opponents and building a broad alliance. He also said the PT aimed to increase its federal lower-house representation from 69 to 80 deputies and expand the number of allied senators.