Palmeiras beat Remo 6-1 at Nubank Parque in São Paulo on November 5, but stayed second in Brazil’s Campeonato Brasileiro. An updated study by the Mathematics Department at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) puts Palmeiras’ chance of winning the title at 12.8%, compared with 87.2% for leaders Flamengo.

How Palmeiras built the 6-1 lead

Arias scored twice, while Maurício, Flaco López and Felipe Anderson also scored for Palmeiras. Remo player Marcelinho put the ball into his own net to complete the home side’s tally.

Na Hora da Notícia, a Brazilian news outlet, reported that Arias scored in the third and 13th minutes, then Maurício made it 3-0 in the 20th. Marcelinho’s own goal came before half-time, but Remo replied in stoppage time through José Welison. Flaco López scored nine minutes into the second half, and Felipe Anderson added the sixth in the 34th minute.

Remo stood 19th with 29 points, in the relegation zone. Palmeiras had 73 points and remained in second place.

Why the title race still favours Flamengo

Flamengo reached 76 points after beating Grêmio 3-1 at the Maracanã on Wednesday. Its three-point lead over Palmeiras is accompanied by a two-win advantage. Wins are the first tiebreaker in the league, so the points gap alone does not capture the difference between the teams.

The UFMG figures are probabilities, not a final outcome: the study estimated Palmeiras’ title chance at 12.8% and Flamengo’s at 87.2%. The figures show a stark contrast between the sides’ current positions in the title race, even after Palmeiras’ six-goal performance.

What comes next

The teams are scheduled to meet at Nubank Parque on November 21. Before then, Palmeiras are due to visit Cruzeiro at Mineirão on November 18; their other listed opponents are Chapecoense away and Coritiba at home.

Flamengo are scheduled to host Athletico on November 18, then visit Coritiba at Couto Pereira and play Chapecoense in Rio de Janeiro. The direct meeting is one of several league fixtures still to come for both clubs.