Preliminary results from Israel’s parliamentary election left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc short of a governing majority, sending the next government into coalition negotiations and placing President Isaac Herzog at the center of the process. With counting still under way, no camp has yet secured the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat Knesset.

Exit polls and partial counts point to a stalemate

Late exit polls on Israel’s main broadcasters gave different readings of the race. Channel 12 projected 52 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc and 49 for the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief turned political challenger. Channel 13 projected a 51-51 tie.

Partial counting later showed a similar picture without a majority for either side. With 41.9% of polling stations included and double-envelope and military ballots still pending, figures cited from The Times of Israel put Netanyahu’s bloc on 57 seats, the opposition on 47 and Arab parties on 16.

Israelis vote for party lists, not individual candidates, and governments are built after the vote through coalition agreements. That makes the final seat count only the starting point of a bargaining process that can last weeks.

Netanyahu and Eisenkot both claim momentum

Eisenkot told supporters he wanted to form a government and opposed holding another election. He framed the result as a rejection of Netanyahu’s continued rule and said he would try to form a government rather than force a return to the polls.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, said Likud remained the largest party and argued that the right-wing bloc still had the numbers to govern. He called for a national right-wing government and said the right-wing bloc had a decisive majority.

Herzog’s role becomes decisive

Once official results are announced, Herzog is due to consult party representatives and assign the mandate to the candidate he judges most likely to assemble a majority. Under Israeli practice, that does not have to be the leader of the largest party.

Herzog has said the country should make every effort to avoid another election. If no bloc can convert the current numbers into a coalition, the result could return Israel to another period of political deadlock.

The vote was also held against a security backdrop that dominated the campaign. Channel 12 reported an unprecedented clash between Netanyahu and army chief Eyal Zamir over an Iran-related directive before the election, but Netanyahu rejected the allegation and Defense Minister Israel Katz said the reports of a rift were baseless.

Katz also said Israel had no plan to attack Iran before the election and would respond with force if Iran attacked Israel. The dispute added to a campaign already shaped by security fears, even as coalition arithmetic will shape the process of forming a government.